It does sound as if Gartner (quick: who said "The thing I love about science is that you get so much speculation from so little data"?) have taken one year's sales figures and presumed that every subsequent year will follow the same pattern. Conveniently forgetting that all the early adopters are the monied fanbois who are willing to buy anything if it's shiny enough.and has the right logo associations.
When smartphones start to be used by "real people" I think they'll quickly find that the proportion of users who are willing to pay for applications is a small percentage of what the first generation did. Further, I'd guess they are likely to have far fewer applications (paid or free) on their phones, too.
Now we all know this isn't just a survey, it's a GARTNER survey, but I still wouldn't bet my future income on it's accuracy or validity.
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The dangers
... of extrapolating from a single point
It does sound as if Gartner (quick: who said "The thing I love about science is that you get so much speculation from so little data"?) have taken one year's sales figures and presumed that every subsequent year will follow the same pattern. Conveniently forgetting that all the early adopters are the monied fanbois who are willing to buy anything if it's shiny enough.and has the right logo associations.
When smartphones start to be used by "real people" I think they'll quickly find that the proportion of users who are willing to pay for applications is a small percentage of what the first generation did. Further, I'd guess they are likely to have far fewer applications (paid or free) on their phones, too.
Now we all know this isn't just a survey, it's a GARTNER survey, but I still wouldn't bet my future income on it's accuracy or validity.